A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution

I10 4

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Abstract

In the exact sciences the “spectrum” concept is formalized, computable and used in effective mathematical procedures like the Fourier transform. At that the spectrum represents quite definite properties of material nature. In the social sciences the “spectrum” term is also used, however, it is figurative. In particular, the “spectrum” concept in the political sciences means traditionally emphasis on the right, the left and the centrists. In this work a new quantitative approach for political spectrum description is suggested. By analogy with Fourier transform the causation between a momentary spectrum distribution and a subsequent temporal process is ascertained. The suggested methodology has applied for a search of particular fast changing political process in the 1990-2007 in Russia. The approved methodology can be used to analyze variable political processes and to forecast their evolution. In particular, the next full-scale political and socio-economical crisis in Russia is predicted.