Extreme Weather, Local Hazard Loss Concern, and Adaptation Policy in China: Evidence from 200,000+ Citizen-Government Interactions

Abstract

Extreme weather increasingly shapes public awareness of climate risks, yet survey evidence reveals gaps between risk perceptions and direct physical hazard exposure. Existing research highlights the importance of timely communication to bridge this gap, but evidence on the dynamics of concern around hazard events remains limited. Combining temporal and spatial high-resolution indicators of temperature, precipitation, drought, and haze extremes with over 200,000 citizen–government interactions from China’s Message Board for Leaders (2011–2023), we construct a novel index capturing the salience and emotional intensity of locally expressed hazard concern. Using local-projection and matched difference-in-differences estimations, we show that extreme events trigger sharp, short-lived surges in loss concern and sentiment, typically lasting one to three months, with the strongest spikes following heat and heavy rainfall. Distinct concern profiles emerge across hazard types, identifying a critical window when citizens are likely most attuned to climate risks and communication may be most effective. We further study whether heightened concern translates into increased policy attention and find this to be the case particularly after floods and droughts. The results reveal how localised communication channels can convert transient public concern into enduring policy responses, underscoring their potential to inform climate adaptation strategies.

Presenters

Henning Zschietzschmann
Student, PhD in Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom

Details

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation in a Themed Session

Theme

Participatory Process

KEYWORDS

EXTREME WEATHER, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, LOCAL ADAPTATION, GOVERNANCE, CLIMATE COMMUNICATION, CHINA