Abstract
Tourism remains a major driver of economic growth in the Caribbean; however, while some destinations effectively convert tourism potential into sustained expansion, others stagnate despite similar natural and economic conditions. The Esteban-Marquilas (1972) Shift-Share Analytical (SSA) framework was applied to decompose inbound tourist growth across nineteen Caribbean Island States from 1995 to 2022. Growth is separated into four components: Area-Wide, Region-Mix, Competitive, and Allocation Effects, to identify the structural and competitive factors shaping destination performance. Macroeconomic indicators such as leakages and tourism multipliers were also incorporated to contextualize how structural efficiency influences realised tourism outcomes. Results show that regional tourism growth was largely driven by a strong Competitive Effect; however, these gains were substantially offset by a large negative Allocation Effect, reflecting a significant divergence between benchmark-expected and actual realised growth. Jamaica accounted for approximately 63 percent of total net shifts, underscoring both its specialisation advantage and the Caribbean’s continued reliance on the Americas market. Overall, the SSA framework proves to be a practical and data-efficient diagnostic tool for understanding tourism dynamics and informing policy in Caribbean Island States. We would also examine the carrying capacity of these countries to assess whether tourism growth is approaching sustainable limits. This analysis would be conducted using both the raw, unsmoothed tourist arrival series and a long-run trend generated using a Hodrick–Prescott filter. Comparing these measures helps clarify how capacity pressures differ between temporary fluctuations and deeper long-run trends.
Presenters
Roger HoseinProfessor, Economics, University of the West Indies, Tunapuna-Piarco, Trinidad and Tobago
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Changing Dimensions of Contemporary Tourism
KEYWORDS
Shiftshare+tourism growth
