Pathways Forward
Evaluating Sustainability of Social-ecological Systems: A Comparison of Protected Areas in Guanacaste, Costa Rica and the Azores, Portugal
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Jeanie Bukowski
I employ the social-ecological systems (SES) framework to map, analyze and compare human-natural systems in terrestrial and marine protected areas in two world regions: the Guanacaste Conservation Area (ÁCG) in the northwest of Costa Rica and the Regional Network of Protected Areas of the Azores (RAPA), on this Portuguese North Atlantic archipelago. Both of these areas feature protected status designations from the global to the local levels of governance and contain several “resource systems,” as characterized by the SES framework. In the Azores I focus on the Terras do Priolo terrestrial protected area on São Miguel Island, and the broader Marine Park; and in the ÁCG on the tropical dry forest sectors, and the marine protected areas associated with the Santa Rosa sector. The SES approach frames questions of sustainability through an analysis of complex adaptive systems, assuming that the social, economic, ecological, and cultural systems in a given area are deeply intertwined. I am engaging in Fulbright-supported qualitative fieldwork research (observation; semi-structured interviews; embedding with ecosystem research teams, etc.) to evaluate institutional arrangements and policies in the protected areas in terms of their likelihood of facilitating resilience and sustainability of the natural and human systems in these areas. I anticipate drawing lessons from the Guanacaste and Azores comparison that may inform sustainability policy and practice in these areas and beyond.
Featured Towards a Fair Transition to the Green Economy by Mitigating the Distributional Effects of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Charalampia Mikropoulou
Carbon pricing is a policy that involves the imposition of charges on carbon dioxide emissions, thereby increasing the price of fossil fuels1. Although meeting the ambitious global greenhouse gas emissions reduction target outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement brings numerous environmental benefits, it also incurs significant implementation costs and may impact various dimensions of human well-being, including welfare, poverty, and poverty distributional aspects. To ensure climate stabilization, it is crucial to exercise supply restraint and de facto carbon pricing, which would result in higher fossil fuel prices. However, predicting the carbon price trend needed to achieve the Paris target is challenging. Nonetheless, it is imperative to establish a hard limit on total fossil carbon consumption to achieve a Paris-consistent emissions reduction trajectory, with permits exclusively available to fossil fuel companies. While a carbon price that varies over time may aid in reducing emissions, a hard cap with auctioned permits is a more direct and proven approach to accomplishing this objective2. Therefore, it is crucial to examine the poverty and distributional effects of various carbon pricing methods that would be compatible with achieving the Paris Agreement targets. However, implementing the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to less than 2°C would require a substantial increase in current policy initiatives. Despite providing several environmental benefits, meeting the strict global GHG emissions reduction target entails considerable implementation costs and may adversely affect various aspects of human well-being, as well as have distributional implications for households.
Planning for Sustainable and Just Food Systems in an Uncertain Future: Applying Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios to Long-term Planning
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Robert Newell
This research explores approaches for long-term food systems planning in ways that account for and respond to uncertainty in the face of global climate change. Using Revelstoke, Canada, as a case study the project involved researchers working with community stakeholders (1) to consider a scenario that captures an equitable and resilient local food system, and (2) to explore scenario alternatives that respond to external trends and shocks as per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The research methods involved a stakeholder workshop, where a future food system scenario was presented to participants via a digital visualization tool and then activities were done to facilitate an exploration of how the scenario would change under IPCC’s SSP1 (sustainability) and SSP3 (regional rivalry) scenarios. These activities stimulated thinking about the features of the scenarios, outcomes of the scenarios (with respect to climate action, biodiversity, community health, and social justice), and a timeline of events for the scenarios (from current to 2100). Results from the work include two emergent scenarios (i.e., the initial scenario changed as per SPP1 and SSP3 trends and conditions), with the SPP1-influenced scenario involving increases in technological advancement and the SSP3-influenced scenario involving a higher degree of localization of food systems due to isolationist policies and local culture. The study developed new ways of qualitatively exploring and examining uncertainties in scenario planning, and the approach used in this research can be applied by other researchers and practitioners to support long-term planning in their communities.
